Earnings Contrarian Research
Buy after a negative earnings reaction; exit after a later positive reaction
Mode RESEARCH ONLYUniversee Common US 24Window 5 years
Headline evidence
The signal is observed at the close following an SEC 8-K Item 2.02 filing. Entry occurs at the next session open, so the test does not trade before the reaction is known. A “bad” or “good” event means a stock reaction of at least 2%, not an analyst EPS surprise.
Results by company
Small samples per company — interpret cautiously| Symbol | Trades | Average return | Win rate | Average excess vs SPY |
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Method and limitations
BACKTEST ≠ PAPER EXECUTIONOfficial event source: SEC EDGAR submissions API.